The late-glacial and post-glacial history of the Baltic
continues to be actively studied, and a number of papers
on the subject have appeared in the past two years.
E. Antevs (11) has contendëd that the Ancylus elevation
in the south-west Baltic region has been over-estimated.
He considers that during Ancylus time the Baltic was
never a true lake, but was an inland sea connected with
the Atlantic by a narrow channel, and kept fresh by the
enormous volume of water supplied by the melting
Scandinavian ice-sheet. This view is accepted by
G. de Geer, but is denied by H. Munthe. It is admitted
that the water was fresh, and if there was free com-
munication with the Atlantic it seems improbable that
the amount of thaw water during the cold dry winter
would be sufficiënt to keep out the sea water. From
the climatological point of view, however, the important
point is that die inflow of sea water at a higher tempera-
ture was interrupted, and it does not seem to matter
greatly which view is correct.
I. Hogbom (12) has reinvestigated “ fossil dunes ” of
northern Europe, and concludes that they were formed
by dry winds from west-north-west during Finiglacial
time (ca. 7000-6000 b.c.) and not to periglacial easterly
winds, as formerly supposed. The type of pressure
distribution reconstructed from the dunes and other
evidence resembles that prevailing during the cold
spell of spring.
G. de Geer (13) has been investigating the annual
clay-varves of the late-glacial period in North America.
It will be remembered that by an examination of similar
annual layers in Sweden he arrived at an absolute
10 THE EV0LUTI0N OF CLIMATE
measure of the age of various stages of the retreat. He
considers that the succession of different thicknesses
in certain groups of annual layers in North America
bears so close a resemblance to parts of the Swedish
succession that they must refer to the same groups of
years, and on these grounds he has dated parts of the
final stages of the glacial period in North America.
The ice left the eastern end of Lake Champlain about
I,loo years before the end of the Ice Age in Sweden
(ca. 5000 b.c.). In Timiskaming (northern Ontario)
the recession was traced for over 600 years, the ice
leaving the district 297 years after the close of the Ice
Age in Sweden. This indicates that the melting of the
inland ice lasted somewhat longer in Canada than in
Sweden ; but de Geer considers that there can be no
more doubt as to the exact agreement between the
climatic conditions in the two regions. It is greatly
to be hoped that de Geer will publish a table showing
the relative thicknesses of each of his annual layers,
similar to that published by A. E. Douglass of the
width of annual tree-rings. Sir T. W. Edgeworth
David (14) has discovered similar banded clays associated
with the pre-Cambrian and Carboniferous tillites of
Australia, indicating a duration of 12,000 years in the
former case and about 4,000 years in the latter.
The fourfold division of the Quaternary Ice Age
adopted by Penck and Bruckner for the Alps is graduafly
being extended beyond the limits of Europe. Sir T. W.
Edgeworth David (15) accepts it for the glaciation of
Australia and Tasmania; he States that Tasmanian
man is now considered to date back probably to the
Rissian. The Australian type came later, but the
Talgai skull from near Warwick, Queensland, which is
placed in the Riss-Wurm interglacial, has Australian
affinities. As a result of Dainelli’s researches in the
Himalayan region, F. Loewe (16) has delineated a four-
fold glaciation of the western Himalayas. The second
ice-extension was the greatest, the positions of the
INTRODUCTION n
snow-line being: Glaciation I, unknown; II, 11,500
feet; III, 12,300 feet; IV, 12,550 feet. The fourth
glaciation was followed by retreat stadia as in the Alps.
No fossiliferous interglacial deposits are known, so that
the correlation with the Alpine stages is problematical.
Finally, I have to mention an important publication
by H. Gams and R. Nordhagen (17), deahng primarily
with the post-glacial climatic changes in central Europe,
but summarizing also the results of recent researches
in other parts of the Continent. Their summary
commences with the “ Great Interglacial ” (following
the Mindelian glaciation), in which they place the
Chellean industry. After this they intercalate a new
glacial stage, the Mühlbergian, followed by the short
Rabutz interglacial, in which they place the Acheulian.
This additional glaciation certainly clears up some
difficulties, and facilitates correlation with the (possibly)
five-fold American series (H. F. Osborn and C. A. Reeds
ignore the Iowan and so make the American series four-
fold); but much field-work will be required before
geologists will consent to such a modification of Penck
and Bruckner’s classic scheme. Gams and Nordhagen
consider the Rissian glaciation to have been the greatest,
instead of the Mindelian; it was followed by the
Rixdorf interglacial, also short. The Würrn glaciation
is divided into a number of stages—Schaffhauser Advance,
Laufen Oscillation, Mecklenburgian End Moraine,
Alleröd Oscillation, Fennoscandian End Moraine, fol-
lowed by the other familiar retreat stages. For the
post-glacial period the pioneer work of Axel Blytt is
regarded as thoroughly confirmed, and his terminology
is accepted. The temperature is considered to have
risen steadily through the dry Boreal Period (Continental
Phase, Azilian-Tardenoisian), the moist Atlantic Period
(Maritime Phase), and the dry sub-boreal Period (Later
Forest Phase), reaching a maximum 40 F. above the
present near 1000 b.c. It was at this period that the
hazel reached its greatest extension in northern Scan-
2
12 THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE
dinavia, and not during the boreal period, as formerly
believed. About B.c. 850 occurred a sudden deteriora-
tion of climate, which in the Alps had almost the appear-
ance of a catastrophe. This begins the sub-Atlantic
Period (Later Peat-bog Phase) which in the opinion of
the authors corresponds with the Daun readvance of
the Alpine glaciers; after this the climate of Europe
passed by a series of oscillations to its present level.
If the results of all the remaining papers published in
the past two or three years were discussed, this preface
would grow to the size of another book. In the face of
such an outpouring of material one’s views require
constant adjustment, and the most urgent need at the
moment, as pointed out by Osbom and Reeds (2), is a
stable framework of classification for the Quaternary
period, which shall embody at once the glacial advances
and retreats, the river terraces and raised beaches, the
succession of faunas, both land and marine, and of
floras, the human industries and the waves of climate.
Unfortunately we seem now to be farther than ever
from such a framework. Let us hope that this is the
darkest hour which precedes the dawn, and that some
generally accepted framework will soon emerge.
C. C. P. B.
January, 1925.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
(1) Mayet, Lucien. “ Corrélations géologiques et archéologiques des tempi
quaternaires.” Paris, C.-R, Ass. frattf. avanc. sci., 44 Session, Stras-
bourg, 1920, pp. 481-490.
(2) Osbom, Henry Fairfield, and Chester A. Reeds. “ Old and new stan-
dards of Pleistocene diyision in relation to the prehistory of man in
Europe.” Buil. Geol. Soc. America, 33, 1922, pp. 411-490.
(3) Moir, J. Reid. “ The Ice-age and Man.” Man, 1922, p. [52].
. “ The antiquity of man in East Anglia.” Science
Progress, July, 1924, p. 129. See also The Times, August 22, 1924.
BIBLÏOGRAPHY 13
(4) Palm er, L. S. “The Ice-age and man in Hampshire.” Man, 1922,
p. 106.
-------------, and J. H. Cooke. “The Pleistocene deposits of the
Portsmouth district and their relation to man.” London, Proc.
Geol. Ass., 34, 1923, p. 253.
(3) Huntington, Ellsworth, and S. S. Visher. “ Climatic changes, their
nature and cause.” New Haven, 1922.
(6) British (Terra Nova) Antarctic Expedition 1910-1913. “ Glaciology,”
by C. S. Wright and R. E. Priestley. London (Harrison & Sons), 1922.
(7) Kerner-Marilaun, F. “ Untersuchungen über die morphogene Klima-
komponente der permischen Eiszeit Indiens.” Wien, Sitzungsber.
Akai. Wiss., Matb.-nat. KL, Abt. x, 126 Bd., 1917, pp. 177-228.
(

------------------. “ Das akryogene Seeklima und seine Bedeutung
für die geologischen Probleme des Arktis.” Wien, Sitzungsber. Akai.
Wiss., 131, 1922, p. 133.
(9) Brooks, C. E. P. “ The problem of mild polar climates.” London,
Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 31, 1923.
(10) Dwerryhouse, A. R. “ The glaciation of north-eastern Ireland.”
London Q. J. G. S., 79, 1923, p. 332.
(11) Antevs, Ernst. “On the late-glacial and post-glacial history of the
Baltic.” New York, N. Y., Geogr. Ren., 12, 1922, pp. 602-612.
(12) Hogbom, I. “ Ancient inland dunes of northern and middle Europe.”
Stockholm, Geogr. Ann., 3, 1923, pp. 113-243.
(13) Geer, G. de. “ Correlation of late-glacial annual day-varves in North
America with the Swedish time scale.” Stockholm, Geol. Foren.
Forb., 43, 1921, p. 70.
(14) David, Sir T. W. Edgeworth. “The ' Varve Shales’ of Australia.”
Amer.J. Sd. (5), 3, 1922, p. 115.
(15) -------------------------. “ Geological evidence of the antiquity
of man in the Commonwealth, with especial reference to the Tas-
manian aborigines.” Hobart, Papers and Proc. R. Soc. F asmania,
1923, pp. 109-150.
(16) Loewe, F. “ Die Eiszeit in Kaschmir, Baltistan and Ladakh.” Berlin,
Zs. Ges. Erik., 1924, p. 42.
(17) Gams, H., and R. Nordhagen. “ Postglaziale Klimaanderungen
und Erdkrustenb ewegungen in Mitteleuropa.” München, Geogr.
Geseüscb., Landesk. Forscbungen, H.25, 1923.
THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE
CHAPTER I
FACTORS OF CLIMATE AND THE CAUSES OF CLIMATIC
FLU CTUATI ONS
T he climate of any point on the earth’s surf ace depends
on a complex of factors, some of them due to influences
arriving from outside the earth, and others purely
terrestrial. Since any variations of climate must be
due to a change in one or more of these, it is necessary,
before we can discuss changes of climate, to consider
briefly what the factors are.
The only important extra-terrestrial factor of climate
is the amount of radiant energy which reaches the
borders of the earth’s atmosphere from the heavenly
bodies—that is, from the sun, for the moon and stars
can be ignored in this connexion. The only other
conceivable factor is the arrival of meteorites, bringing
kinetic energy, which is converted into heat, and intro-
ducing cosmic dust into the atmosphere; but it is highly
improbable that this is of appreciable effect.
The amount of solar radiation1 which reaches the
earth depends in the first place on the total radiation
emitted by the sun, and in the second place on the
distance of the earth from the sun, both of which quanti-
ties are variable. It has been calculated that if other
factors remained unchanged an increase of ten per cent.
in the solar radiation would raise the mean temperature
of the earth’s surf ace by about 70 C., or between 12°
1 By this term we shall in future understand only that part of it which
is responsible for thermal effects.
15
16 THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE
and 130 F., with, of course, a corresponding fall for a
decrease.
After the sun’s radiation reach.es the outer limits of
the earth’s atmosphere its nature and intensity are
modified by the composition of the air through which
it passes. In general the air itself is very transparent to
the small wave-lengths which make up the solar rays,
but the presence of fine dust, whether of volcanic or of
cosmic origin, has been shown by Humphreys to be a
distinct hindrance to their passage, so that volcanic
eruptions of an explosive nature, such as that of Krakatoa
in 1883, La Soufriére (St. Vincent) in 1902, or Katmai
(Alaska) in 1912, may result in a fall of temperature
over the world as a whole.
The temperature of the earth is determined by the
balance between the radiation received from the sun
and the terrestrial radiation to space, and a decrease in
the latter would be as effective in raising the mean
temperature as an increase in the former. The use of
glass for greenhouses depends on this principle; for glass
is transparent to heat rays of small wave-length, but is
largely opaque to the rays of greater wave-length which
make up terrestrial radiation. Certain constituents
of the atmosphere, especially water-vapour, carbon
dioxide and ozone, are effective in this way, and varia-
tions in the amount of these gases present may affect
the temperature.
The angle at which the sun’s rays strike the earth’s
Surface is a highly important factor. Within the Tropics
the sun at midday is nearly vertical throughout the
year, and the mean temperature in these regions is
correspondingly high; on the other hand, during the
long polar night the sun is not seen for half t;he year,
and very low temperatures prevail. There is thus a
seasonal variation of the heat received from the sun in
middle and high latitudes, the extent of which depends
on the “ obliquity of the ecliptic,” i.e. the inclination
of the earth’s axis to the plane of its orbit round the
FACTORS OF CLIMATE 17
sun, and any changes in this factor must alter the seasonal
variation of climate.
Further, since the climate of any place depends so
closely on its latitude, it follows that if the latitude
changes the climate will change. A ship can change
its latitude at will, but we are accustomed to regard the
position of the “ firm ground beneath our feet ” relatively
to the poles as fixed within narrow limits. This stability
has, however, been questioned from time to time, mainly
on evidence derived from palaeoclimatology, and theories
of climatic change have been based on the wanderings
of continents and oceans. Finally, local climate is
intimately bound up with the distribution of land and
sea, and the marine and atmospheric currents resulting
therefrom, and on elevation above sea level, both of
which factors, as we shall see, have suffered very wide
variations in the geological past.
Nearly all the theories which have been put forward
to account for geological changes of climate, and espe-
cially the occurrence of the last or Quaternary Ice Age,
are based on the abnormal variation of one or other of
the above factors, and we may consider them briefly in
turn. Very few have ever been taken seriously. In
the first place, we can at once dismiss fluctuations in
the radiation emitted by the sun as a cause of great
changes of climate. It is true that many small fluctua-
tions are traceable directly to this cause, such as the
eleven-year periodicity of temperature and rainfall; but
these fluctuations are, and must be, greater at the
equator than at the poles, while the fall of temperature
during the Glacial period reached its maximum near
the poles and was least at the equator. Moreover, there
is not .the slightest direct evidence in support of such a
theory, and it can only be admitted when all other
hypotheses have failed.
The “ astronomical ” theory of the cause of climatic
fluctuations is associated chiefly with the name of James
Croll. Croll’s theory connects abnormal variations of
18 THE EVOLUTION OF OLIMATE
climate with variations, firstly of the eccentricity of the
earth’s orbit, and secondly of the ecliptic. In periods
of high eccentricity the hemisphere with winter in
aphelion is cold because the long severe winter is far
from being balanced by the short hot summer; at the
same time the opposite hemisphere enjoys a mild equable
climate. This theory commanded instant respect, and
still finds a place in the text-books, but difficulties soon
began to appear. The evidence strongly suggests that
glacial periods did not alternate in the two hemispheres,
but were simultaneous over the whole earth; even on
the equator the snow-line was brought low down.
Moreover, on Mars the largest snow-cap appears on the
hemisphere with its winter in perihelion. Although
Croll’s reasoning was beautifully ingenious he gave very
few figures ; while the date which he gives for the
conclusion of the Ice Age, 80,000 years ago, has been
shown by recent research to be far too remote, 15,000
years being nearer the mark.
Croll’s theory has recently been revived in an altered
form by R. Spitaler, a Czecho-Slovakian meteorologist,
who calculated the probable alteration in the mean
temperature of each latitude under maximum eccen-
tricity 6^7775) and maximum obliquity (270 48'), the
distribution of land and water remaining unchanged.
The results are shown in the attached table, where —
means that the temperature was so much below the
present mean, and + that it was so much above.
Aphelior i December. Aphelion June.
Winter. Summer. Year. Winter. Summer. Year.
°F. °F. °F. °F. "F. °F.
N. 600 - 9 + 15 -1 -s -4 -1
30° -13 + 13 -2 + 1 -8 -2
Equator - 8 + 4 -2 + 1 -6 -2
S. 30° - 6 + 1 -2 +3 -s -2
6o° “ 2 - 1 -1 + 1 — 2 —1
FACTORS OF CLIMATE 19
Spitaler claims that these differences are sufficiënt to
cause a glacial period in the hemisphere with winter in
aphelion, but from. this point his theory départs widely
from Croll’s. During the long severe winter great
volumes of sea water are brought to a low temperature,
and, owing to their greater weight, sink to the bottom
of the ocean, where they remain cold and accumulate
from year to year. But the water warmed during the
short hot summer remains on the surface, where its heat
is dissipated by evaporation and radiation. Thus,
throughout the cold period, lasting about 10,000 years,
the ocean in that hemisphere is steadily growing colder,
and this mass of cold water is sufficiënt to maintain a
low temperature through the whole of the following
period of 10,000 years with winter in perihelion, which
would otherwise be a genial interval. In this way a
period of great eccentricity becomes a glacial period over
the whole earth, but with crests of maximum intensity
altemating in the two hemispheres. Unfortunately the
numerical basis of this theory is not presented, and it
seems incredible that a deficiency of temperature could
be thus maintained through so long a period. Further,
the difficulty about chronology remains, and the work
brings the astronomical theory no nearer to being a
solution of the Ice Age problem than was Croll’s.
The theory which connects fluctuations of climate
on a geological scale with changes in the composition
of the earth’s atmosphere is due to Tyndall and Arrhenius,
and was elaborated by Chamberlin. The theory sup-
posed that the earth’s temperature is maintained by
the “ blanketing ” effect of the carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. This acts like the glass of a greenhouse,
allowing the sun’s rays to enter unhindered, but absorbing
the heat radiated from the earth’s surface and returning
some of it to the earth instead of letting it pass through
to be lost in space. Consequently, any diminution in
the amount of carbon dioxide present would cause the
earth to radiate away its heat more freely, so reducing
20 THE EV0LUTI0N OF CLIMATE
its temperature. But it is now known that the terrestrial
radiation which this gas is capable of absorbing is taken
up equally readily by water-vapour, of which there
is always sufficiënt present, and variations of carbon
dioxide cannot have any appreciable effect.